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Debt markets

This Month

US President Joe Biden last month blamed fuel price inflation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Inflation nightmare worsens as jobs keep booming

The central banks of the Philippines and Singapore raised rates as the inversion of the US yield curve keeps signalling recession.

  • Vesna Poljak
The BoK said the pace and size of rate increases will depend on inflation, growth, financial imbalances and overseas policy moves.

Bank of Korea joins jumbo hikers as inflation fight heats up

The BoK’s move is the biggest since rates became South Korea’s primary monetary tool in the late 1990s.

  • Sam Kim
Investors are looking ahead to key US inflation data, due to be released on Wednesday

Bond yields slide as investors weigh rising China infections

Concerns over fresh COVID-19 lockdowns in China have rocked bonds as another big inflation number looms, and a Fed rate increase lies around the corner.

  • Emma Rapaport
Markets are now concerned about economic growth slowing faster than expected, putting a lower ceiling on Reserve Bank rate increases.

Recession fears depress peak interest rate forecasts

The mood is mirrored in market expectations for the June 2023 cash rate, rising from 1.3 per cent in January this year to a peak of 4.4 per cent in mid-June.

  • Emma Rapaport
Fed chairman Jay Powell; A number of Wall Street economists have lowered their forecasts for second-quarter growth.

Fed minutes could bolster bets for 75 basis-point hike in July

The odds of a US recession in the next year are 38 per cent in the next 12 months, after consumer sentiment hit a record low and interest rates surged.

  • Steve Matthews
As of May, pork prices in the CPI basket were still lower than they were a year ago.

China’s reprieve from global inflation threatened by pork

Hog futures in Dalian have risen to their strongest in a year, while wholesale meat prices are at a six-month high.

  • Bloomberg News
The S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 0.4 per cent, or 30.8 points, to 7316.2 as RBA governor Philip Lowe pointed to more rate rises ahead In his post-board meeting statement.

Peak RBA cash rate estimate drifts lower

Financial markets have reduced the estimated June 2023 cash rate target to 3.54 per cent from a previous implied peak of 3.65 per cent.

  • Vesna Poljak
Bond markets are forecasting ...

Shares rally as bond market lights up with recession risk

Buying in the US sector suggests aggressive interest rates from the Federal Reserve now will mean cuts later. Regional markets rallied on Wall Street’s heels.

  • Emma Rapaport
MLC Asset Bob Cunneen was he only economist in December to correctly predict higher interest rates in May.

The contrarian economist who read the economy right

The RBA has “finally awoken from a coma”, says MLC asset chief economist Bob Cunneen, who wishes his colleagues would challenge consensus more often.

  • Cecile Lefort


Raj Makam, managing director and co-portfolio manager at Oaktree.

Oaktree’s Makam calls out the credit market’s hidden risks

The message from the US veteran portfolio manager to Australian institutions piling into private debt is that the returns don’t always reflect the risks.

  • Jonathan Shapiro
Deutsche Bank was forced to discount the

US banks take a hit from discounted corporate bond sales

A protracted market downturn is forcing underwriters to accept lower prices.

  • Joe Rennison
Reserve Bank governor Phil Lowe has to restore the trust of the market, say bond funds.

Is the bond market punishing the RBA?

Australia’s bond rates are higher than the US and for no good reason, say bond traders. That leads to an awkward debate for Martin Place to consider.

  • Jonathan Shapiro
Japan’s economy is too weak for the central bank to wind back bond buying, officials say.

Why Japan is going the other way on bonds

The Bank of Japan’s plans to buy vast quantities of bonds is in stark contrast to other major economies that are exiting stimulus programs.

  • Nikou Asgari
RBA governor Phil Lowe made news when he gave his first impromptu TV interview earlier in the week.

Attack of the hawks: seven days that killed the easy money era

Around the world, central banks that flooded the market with cheap funds for over a decade are in a rapid, uncomfortable and dramatic retreat.

  • Jonathan Shapiro
Working at the fish markets in Sydney.

Markets predict double rate rise after jobs surge

Investors have fully priced in a second 0.5 percentage point interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank in July because unemployment data shows the economy is running hot.

  • Cecile Lefort
Italian bond yields are in the spotlight again.

ECB acts to tame Europe’s bond market ructions

The prospect of rising interest rates has sparked fears that Italy and Greece will struggle to pay debts, prompting the central bank to support their prices.

  • Hans van Leeuwen
The meeting has raised investor expectations the central bank is preparing to announce a policy instrument to stave off another debt crisis in the region.

ECB calls unscheduled meeting to discuss market turmoil

Borrowing costs for heavily indebted countries have climbed to eight-year highs.

  • Updated
  • Martin Arnold and Adam Samson
RBA governor Philip Lowe remained upbeat on Australia’s economic recovery.

Lowe prompts double jump in rate forecasts

Economists and markets have sharpened their expectations for aggressive interest rate tightening by the Federal Reserve and RBA to control rampant inflation.

  • Alex Gluyas
Global bonds and stocks dived on Tuesday after a slump in the US.

Bonds signal looming US recession, derailing stocks and $A

Bonds and stocks dived, and the Australian dollar struggled after red-hot US inflation stoked worries of an even more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.

  • Cecile Lefort
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is set to announce a further increase in US interest rates this week.

Shares tumble as investors respond to US inflation warning

Highest pace of US consumer price increases in four decades indicates swifter path of monetary tightening ahead of central bank meeting.

  • Cecile Lefort